The AI race, measured

Unbiased, data-driven research on the AI race. Who's actually winning, how fast it's moving, and what it means.

Published research

Latest: How long can Mythos work alone? Predicting METR time horizons from IRT benchmark scores across 14 post-o1 models.

How Long Can Claude Mythos Work Alone?

METR hasn't scored Mythos yet — we predicted it. Regression across 14 post-o1 models puts it at ~16 hours of autonomous work (R²=0.977).

Do Benchmark Breakthroughs Actually Matter?

We tested whether SOTA events move stock prices or token consumption. Answer: they shift usage within 2 weeks, but markets don't care. 30+ interactive charts.

Kimi, Composer, and the Build vs Buy Dilemma

Cursor quietly switched from Anthropic to a fine-tuned open-weight model. We traced it in real-time through 6 data feeds before anyone reported it.