The AI race, measured

Unbiased, data-driven research on the AI race. Who's actually winning, how fast it's moving, and what it means.
Published research
Latest: How long can Mythos and Muse Spark work alone? Predicting METR time horizons from IRT benchmark scores across 13 models.
How Long Can Claude Mythos Work Alone?
METR hasn't scored Mythos yet — we predicted it. Regression across 19 models puts it at ~15 hours of autonomous work. If the frontier is accelerating, it could be 30.
Apr 2026
Do Benchmark Breakthroughs Actually Matter?
We tested whether SOTA events move stock prices or token consumption. Answer: they shift usage within 2 weeks, but markets don't care. 30+ interactive charts.
Mar 2026
Kimi, Composer, and the Build vs Buy Dilemma
Cursor quietly switched from Anthropic to a fine-tuned open-weight model. We traced it in real-time through 6 data feeds before anyone reported it.
Mar 2026

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